More Trouble For Antarctic Ice

I saw an article in Physics Today about the Antarctic ice sheets. It is pretty technical, but really explains the dynamics of ice sheets on land very well. They discuss how recent research indicates portions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) has reached the point of no return. But, they also discuss how new research indicates portions of the ice sheet of East Antarctica is also at risk of collapsing. Here is a figure illustrating the two areas the article discusses:

image of Untitled
Source: Physics Today

What they found is a large ‘plug’ is holding back the ice in Wilkes Basin. This plug is huge (about a trillion tons of ice), but is small in comparison to the ice in the basin. In comparison, the plug would raise the world sea level by about 80 mm if it all melted. If the basin ice melted, it would raise world sea levels by about 3 m. If the plug melts or breaks apart, then there won’t be anything to stop the Wilkes Basin from dumping its ice into the sea.

So, what are the chances of the plug melting? That is a big unknown. It could happen relatively quickly, or it could take hundreds of years. Right now, we don’t know enough of what is underneath the ice and the dynamics of what is going on to say for sure.

Research continues, so stay tuned.


Outstanding Climate Change Videos

A comment on my blog directed me to one of the videos I have linked below (Thanks, Anonymous #2). I watched that video through and was so impressed I went out and found the rest of the videos this guy has done on climate change. I have been very impressed with what I have seen so far and will, over the next few days, watch all of these videos all the way through. In the meantime, I am providing links to all of the videos. If you are interested in learning more about climate change, this guy explains the pertinent parts in a clear, easy-to-understand manner.

They were produced by Potholer54, the YouTube name of Peter Hadfield, a British journalist, science correspondent and geologist. So, his credentials to report on the subject are genuine.

Hopefully, you’ll watch these videos. I know you will learn a lot if you do.


$30,000 Challenge Submission – Basic CO2 Forcing Issue


The Basic CO2 Forcing issue

Its always healthy to take a “birds perspective” of things, just to ROUGHLY get an idea of the situation.

Normally its believed that CO2 (incl feedbacks) is responsible for around 15% of the Earths Greenhouse effect. It cannot be much more since we live on a planet with a water surface and thus plenty of water in the atmosphere. So water (incl feedbacks) is responsible for the majority of Earths greenhouse effect.

The whole idea of global warming started because the Earth appeared around 33 K warmer (278 K) than “it should have been” (255K) given the Earths albedo.
So all greenhouse gasses incl. all feedbacks combined yields roughly these 33 K.

No news so far, I agree.

This ROUGHLY leaves around 15% of 33K to the CO2 forcing incl. feedbacks. That is around 5 K. Lets say 6 K to be conservative.

So as a ROUGH starting point we have around 6 K of warming from CO2 forcing incl feedbacks from CO2 in tha atmosphere.

Still not much new in this, so lets go a step further.

If you take a climate model like MODTRAN you will see that the forcing of the entire CO2 concentration (incl feedbacks) is typically around 9 – 10 times the forcing of one CO2 doubling incl. feedbacks.

So according to typical models, ONE doubling of CO2 should yield around a tenth of the forcing seen from the entire CO2 concentration in the atmosphere incl. feedbacks.

The entire CO2 concentration should have a forcing that matches roughly 10 doublings.

So as a starting point – the rough birds perspective – a new doubling og CO2 concentration from 400 ppm to 800 ppm should yield around one tenth of the 6 K warming we have from the entire CO2 concentration.

So a doubling should yield warming around 1/10 times 6 K = 0,6 K.

Something is wrong now.

IPCC suggests 3 K for just ONE new CO2 doubling. That is, today ONE doubling should have an effect incl. feedbacks of HALF the entire CO2 concentration.

This is a violation of the principle that each doubling has a similar effect.

James Hansen goes further, he suggests 6 K of forcing from jus ONE doubling of CO2. So one doubling today for some reason should match the effect incl. feedbacks from the entire CO2 concentration.

Also, some believe that we will have a global temperature rise of 2-4 K within year 2100.
But hardly any believe that we will have more than 600 ppm in year 2100. (even 600 ppm appear not realistic)
So with just HALF a doubling, we are supposed to see a 2-4K rise in temperature. This demands arounf 4-8 K warming effect from CO2 incl. feedbacks.
Again this demands that the next CO2 doubling incl. feedbacks has an effect around 10 times the other doublings incl. feedbacks.

The point.

As long as it is NOT explained why CO2 effect incl. feedbacks added to the atmosphere now should have an effect dramatically stronger than the CO2 already in the atmosphere, then any such claim fall.

You cannot claim that one doubling of CO2 now should have an effect that roughly matches the entire CO2 concentration in the atmosphere without very carefully explaining, documenting and justifying how this should be possible.
So far this obvious problem is not even mentioned when claiming dramatic forcing from CO2 incl. feedbacks.

See illustrations and more:


I will start with your ending – referencing Anthony Watts on anything. If you do that, there is a very high probability you are wrong. See my response about your previous submission for more details about Watts.

But, let’s go back to the beginning of your submission when you say that CO2 is responsible for only 15% of the greenhouse effect. This is false it two ways. First, CO2 is responsible for about 1/3rd (33%) of the warming, but it is the principle driver because the main greenhouse gas is water vapor and that vapor wouldn’t be there if CO2 wasn’t raising the temperature in the first place. So, CO2 is actually the principle driver of the greenhouse effect. So, using your own math, the result of doubling CO2 would be about 1.5 degrees C. But, there are many other factors involved, most noticeably the water vapor. Another very major factor is what happens to cloud formation. Clouds are a negative feedback in the day time by reflecting incoming sunlight, but a positive feedback at nighttime by trapping IR radiation leaving the surface. And, how does the cloud formation change with temperature and water vapor? It all becomes very complicated very quickly and the question of clouds is the wild card in this whole process.

In short, you tried to use a simple calculation to make a definite calculation for a very complicated system. The fact that you number does not agree with forecasted results is not surprising or controversial.

But, the bottom line is if you are going to rely on Watts for you information, you will always have problems. Garbage in, garbage out.

You did not prove man made global warming is not real.

$30,000 Challenge Submission – Mountain Valleys


    Dear Christopher,

    I am: Frank Lansner, chemical civil engineer with focus on biochemistry from Danish Technical University. I have worked the last 16 with software development.

    I have to follow my hunch, and it tells me that you are actually sincere about this challenge. My hunch also tell me that you might not accept a really good presentation of evidence against Human caused global warming, simply because “pro-IPCC” scientists normally don’t.

    But still, your approach here is very personal and different, so who knows, perhaps you are actually going to be open fair and honest. So, I’m curious, and in the following I present to you severe problems for the AGW hypothesis.

    I “know” I won’t see money, so from me this is not about money. I’m interested to see your responses, simply. Am I going to make any impression to you at all? Lets see.

    PROOF 1

    As explained in this article we have a surprising problem in data when finally it was possible to get hands on original temperature data from original meteorological year books.

    The proof against global warming is NOT that we generally see more cold trended long temperature series from original sources than typical “adjusted” sources. We do, but this is no itself a proof about anything.

    No the surprising proof is as follows:

    For ALL countries analysed using original temperature data (not massively adjusted my “GISS” or “BEST” or similar) it turns out that temperature stations with a location in shelter of air coming from oceans show hardly any warming after the last warm period 1930-50.
    The better the shelter (typically behind mountains, in valleys and similar) the less warming. In some very well sheltered areas it appears to be colder today than during the last warming period 1930-50.

    These findings goes for the areas/continents tested so far in the “original temperatures” project and the RUTI project.

    So, what does it tell us that areas that is located rather near mountains in shelter of ocean air?

    First it raises the question:
    How come “CO2” seems not to work after approx. 1940 without the presence of ocean air? Why cannot CO2 warm such areas? If it was indeed a strong climate driver?

    Well IF CO2 had been a strong climate driver and human addition of CO2 was important we should have seen warming after around 1940 also in the valleys sheltered best from ocean air. But we don’t.
    So here I could end my case, because dangerous CO2-effect already appear wrong at this point.
    I want you to first consider this first evidence just as is. In a real “Earth laboratory” where changes in ocean air temperature “noise” is avoided best possible, there is little or no warming. Sometimes even cooling after the warm 1930-50 period.



    But let’s go a little further, simply to understand what’s going on. Why the missing “valley-warming”?

    The Earth surface today is generally warmer than in the warm period 1930-50.

    Coastal temperature stations and mountain stations facing ocean winds also show this warming, but in such stations affected by ocean air we see that the warm-period 1930-50 is not nearly as warm as seen for the valley stations.

    So, the heat measured in valley stations 1930-50 resembles present day heat. But something is preventing this heat to show in data from water-affected stations.

    Water – oceans or deeper lakes – will buffer rapid temperature changes resulting from a new heat balance of the Earth. Water will reduce the temperature change from a changing heat balance. Water will delay the temperature change due to a new heat balance over the Earth.

    It seems that after the little ice age that ended around 1900-20, the rapid change in heat balance around 1930-50 could only be detected in the valleys best protected against “delay-noise” from oceans.

    This is why Valleys do show us the new much warmer heat balance that began around 1930-40, but ocean affected stations don’t.

    Since the temperature of the best sheltered valley stations show same temperature today as 1930-50, then this tell us that the actual heat balance over the Earth today is similar to the 1930-50 levels – before massive human CO2 outlets.

    The warming seen in recent decades over oceans and from ocean affected stations thus appear to be a delayed adaption to the new heat balance that began around 1930-40.
    So falsely it looked in recent decades as if the heat balance due to CO2 was still warmer. But it was just the oceans that were slow to adapt.

    OK, dear Chris.
    Before claiming that you can’t see this when you look up stations in BEST and GISS etc. please be aware that these sources of temperature information often adjusts temperature stations in valleys to look like station data from near by mountain tops, coast, larger cities. And in many cases the 1930-50 data from valley stations are simply just not used.

    Notice that the Majority of for example original Alpine stations (around 90 of 150) are valley stations with little or no heat trend, so its quite a severe action to ignore the valleys at times, see:

    Hungary is SURROUNDED by mountains, see original data – and how it is ignored by “BEST”:

    In Denmark, only a few coastal stations are really public available, and then the metropol Copenhagen, but, see what original inland data from old books show:
    And so on.
    In general, see how treats all data from valleys from all countries analysed:

    In general it seems that temperature stations in valleys for some reason are very unreliable? According to BEST?

    So in short my proof 1:
    If CO2 had a dramatic effect since around 1950, this should also result in strong heat trend from temperature stations located in the valleys best sheltered from ocean air temperature trends.


  3. wops, words missing:

    So in short my proof 1:
    If CO2 had a dramatic effect since around 1950, this should also result in strong heat trend from temperature stations located in the valleys best sheltered from ocean air temperature trends. But all over the world we see that the best the valleys best sheltered against ocean air show little or no heat trend. Sometimed even a cooling trend after around 1930-50.

    Kind Regards Frank Lansner


  4. Im very sorry, my child danced on the keyboard while im writing… ! one more time the final lines:

    So in short my proof 1:
    If CO2 had a dramatic effect since around 1950, this should also have resulted in a strong heat trend from temperature stations located in the valleys best sheltered from ocean air temperature trends.

    But all over the world we see that the valleys best sheltered against ocean air show little or no heat trend. Sometimed even a cooling trend after around 1930-50 like in the US midwest.

    Kind Regards Frank Lansner


    You started out with a link to a link to a post by Anthony Watts. Watts is one of the people that I automatically reject as a source of information – and for very good reason. First, he receives funds from The Heartland Institute. This is an organization whose very own internal documents shows they fund people for the directed purpose of undermining climate science. That is enough for me to reject him and I use that standard on a routine basis. Anyone associated or affiliated with Heartland in any way is not a credible source. 

    But, there is more. My take of the evidence is he fabricates his results. That would be consistent with being affiliated with Heartland. Take a look at a review of some of his work here.

    Finally, consider this: When Richard Muller questioned the global average temperature results from the international teams, he set up his own team to examine the question using completely different data. Watts said this:

    “I’m prepared to accept whatever result they produce, even if it proves my premise wrong. The method isn’t the madness that we’ve seen from NOAA, NCDC, GISS, and CRU. That lack of strings attached to funding, plus the broad mix of people involved especially those who have previous experience in handling large data sets gives me greater confidence in the result being closer to a bona fide ground truth than anything we’ve seen yet.”

    But, when the Berkeley Earth team confirmed the results of the international teams, Watts rejected those results and was quoted by the NY Times:

    “Mr. Watts … contended that the study’s methodology was flawed because it examined data over a 60-year period instead of the 30-year-one that was the basis for his research and some other peer-reviewed studies. He also noted that the report had not yet been peer-reviewed and cited spelling errors as proof of sloppiness.”

    Really!!?? Global warming isn’t real because there were some spelling errors???!!!!

    There is a lot more on Watts, but I think I made the point. If you are going to base anything on Watts, then you have already failed in your proof.

    As for ‘getting our hands’ on the data – it is freely available to anyone with Internet access at the National Climatic Data Center. In fact, several submissions have cited the NSDC as the source of their data.

    On to the next issue. You say CO2 is only warming the climate in certain areas and not in others (simplifying your words). Take a look at this NASA GISS plot of temperature changes over the entire globe and I think you will imediately see how that is not a true statement:
    As you can see, with the exception of a few areas, global warming has been happening just about everywhere. There are some regions that have been experiencing more (the polar regions) than others (the equatorial regions), but it is present in all regions of the planet. In particular, the oceans have experienced the least amount of warming. This is because it takes over 4 times as much energy to raise the temperature of a given mass of water as it does to raise the temperature an equal amount in an equal mass of air.
    Now, are there specific areas that have not experienced global warming? Certainly. And, this is very consistent with our understanding. The climate is very complicated and there are many factors besides man made greenhouse emissions. It is not at all surprising to find some local area that has experience reduced warming, or even cooling. 
    But, the thing to remember is that ‘global warming’ means the entire globe. A very localized area does not, in any way, mean global warming is not happening. 
    As for the oceans making things more level – absolutely! Oceans absorb 93% of all energy coming into our environment. It takes a lot of energy to heat the oceans and it is very slow to give it up. It has been well known for thousands of years that the climate near the ocean is much less extreme than the climate far from the ocean.

    My understanding is that you are claiming man made global warming is not real because some mountain valleys are not exhibiting as much warming as other regions. Well, you admitted the data for those areas are questionable. I don’t know this and my experience tells me to reject your claim, but you made the claim the data is bad, but then used that same data to make your point. You can’t have it both ways.

    In short, your claim is that the majority of the planet has experienced global warming, but some isolated areas, in your opinion, have not exhibited the amount of global warming that you think is appropriate. The claim that a small area trumps what is happening in the rest of the world is not valid.

    You have not shown man made global warming is not real.

$30,000 Challenge Submission – Interglacial

  1. Post 1 of 10

    As individual post length is limited to 4096 characters, and my submittal spans almost 33,000 characters, the entire submittal will be about 10 posts, numbered 1 through 10. Whereas I took care to provide proper links to the research papers I quoted from, this site objects to web addresses it claims contain “illegal characters”. In honor of such superior intellect, I have deleted all links from my submittal. After 13+ hours of preparing this submittal, with links to the source papers, provision of those links will require a more intelligent blog engine than this. I am not going to bother, after 1am, to try and construct the attributions in text for so many scholarly quotations as I have included here. I can indeed provide the links, but not on so prissy a forum as this.

    The reason I am posting as anonymous is that according to whatever data this weblog is connected to, I do not own the WordPress identity I have owned for many years now. The hoops one must jump through to distribute knowledge, sheesh!



    1. One thing we can agree on is I need a more intelligent blog engine. I am stuck with this one for now, but it will be something to remember in the future.


    AnonymousJuly 8, 2014 at 5:02 AM

    A Challenge to Keating’s Challenge
    By William F. McClenney, CA-PG #4430

    The Keating Challenge, as stated is:

    “I will award $30,000 of my own money to anyone that can prove, via the scientific method, that man-made global climate change is not occurring”

    That, of course, would be attempting to prove a negative. But how about this for an even more dramatic challenge:

    “Let’s assume that anthropogenic global warming is occurring, would you still be willing to stake the winner if he/she were to prove that the correct thing to do about it is anywhere from maintaining current anthropogenic GHG emissions to actually increasing them?”

    In addition, I will also present powerful arguments why AGW may not matter at all. So please be certain that we all have the Operating Assumption down pat: anthropogenic emissions of GHGs can cause a positive thermal excursion in earth’s climate. In fact, if I may say so, we had all better hope and pray that this assumption is correct.

    I will be quoting copiously from the peer-reviewed literature, providing links to every paper I can. I will attempt to keep this as brief as possible, however the areas of discussion require you to either already have a solid background in the subjects, or be willing to acquire that knowledge by taking some of the “sidetrips” to other locations where this knowledge may be gained.


    It would be one thing if we were having this discussion say a few thousand years after the Holocene Climate Optimum, when producing a positive thermal climate excursion might very well rank as a potential problem for humanity. Unfortunately, for the proponents of AGW, the Holocene is presently 11,717 years old as of c.e. 2014. That might be one of the more ominous numbers you will ever encounter. The Holocene Epoch is the 9th interglacial that has occurred since what is known as the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, or MPT.

    “The emergence of low-frequency, high-amplitude, quasi-periodic (~100-kyr) glacial variability during the middle Pleistocene in the absence of any significant change in orbital forcing indicates a fundamental change internal to the climate system. This middle Pleistocene transition (MPT) began 1250 ka and was complete by 700 ka.”

    During the MPT the period between interglacials went from being paced by the obliquity (or tilt) of our axis of rotation (~41kyrs) to being paced by eccentricity (~100kyrs) which is the variability of our orbit around the sun from near a circle to its most elliptical or “eccentric”. Eccentricity has a second order period of ~400kyrs between each maximum or each minimum. But it is the third orbital variable which comes into play at this exact moment in time, the precession cycle, which varies between ~19-23kyrs.

    Here is when we live. We are presently at one of the 400kyr eccentricity minima. As the MPT is generally discussed as centering around ~800kyrs ago (kya hereon), then it too occurred at an eccentricity minima, as did the Holsteinian Interglacial (also known as Marine Isotope Stage [MIS] 11) which occurred around ~400kya. We are also at the 23kyr node of the precession cyclicity. Seven of the last 8 interglacials back to the MPT, achieved interglacial warmth for about half a precession cycle. And that is


  2. Post 3 of 10:

    what makes the number 11,717 so ominous. 11,500 is half of 23,000. That means, boys and girls, that we are once again at a possible end interglacial, also known as glacial inception.

    That’s right, glacial inception. Bet you didn’t see that one coming.

    SIDETRIP 01:

    The sidetrip above provides extensive documentation relating to the End Holocene debate. Bet you didn’t know it was a debate either. Actually, the debate over the probable length of the Holocene began at the same time the AGW debate did, and from exactly the same data. We will tune in on this debate with Dr. Wallace S. Broecker, arguably the father of modern paleoclimatology, in a question posed as the title of his fascinating paper:

    “The End of the Present Interglacial: How and When?” Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 17

    “Despite the large decline in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation during the last 8000 years, neither sea level nor polar temperatures have as yet undergone any significant downturn. This behavior is consistent with the prediction by Kukla and Matthews (1972) that the Holocene interglacial will terminate suddenly with a jump to another of the climate system’s modes of operation. This is what happened at the end of the last period of peak interglaciation. However, complicating the situation is evidence that ice sheet growth during the transition from marine stage 5e to 5d preceded the shut down of the Atlantic’s conveyor circulation which is thought to have brought Europe’s Eemian to a close.

    “However, it must be kept in mind that the ongoing buildup of greenhouse gases may alter the natural course of events.

    “With this new information in hand, three questions come to mind.
    (1) Were previous intervals of peak interglaciation terminated by abrupt global coolings?
    (2) How close are we to the end of the present interval of peak interglaciation?
    (3) Will the ongoing buildup of greenhouse gases alter the natural sequence of events?”

    You should be able to guess where this is going. This is by no means a falsification of the AGW hypothesis. It is but the beginning of a powerful argument that either eviscerates or obviates the entire AGW discussion.

    Ulrich Muller and Jorg Pross, writing in Quaternary Science Reviews 26 (2007) sum this nasty little problem up neatly:

    “The possible explanation as to why we are still in an interglacial relates to the early anthropogenic hypothesis of Ruddiman (2003, 2005). According to that hypothesis, the anomalous increase of CO2 and CH4 concentrations in the atmosphere as observed in mid- to late Holocene ice-cores results from anthropogenic deforestation and rice irrigation, which started in the early Neolithic at 8000 and 5000 yr BP, respectively. Ruddiman proposes that these early human greenhouse gas emissions prevented the inception of an overdue glacial that otherwise would have already started.”

    In 2009 Crucifix and Rougier ask:

    “We will illustrate our case with reference to a debate currently taking place in the circle of Quaternary climate scientists. The climate history of the past few million years is characterised


  3. Post 4 of 10:

    by repeated transitions between `cold’ (glacial) and `warm’ (interglacial) climates. The first modern men were hunting mammoth during the last glacial era. This era culminated around 20,000 years ago [3] and then declined rapidly. By 9,000 years ago climate was close to the modern one. The current interglacial, called the Holocene, should now be coming to an end, when compared to previous interglacials, yet clearly it is not. The debate is about when to expect the next glacial inception, setting aside human activities, which may well have perturbed natural cycles.

    “On one side, Professor Bill Ruddiman carefully inspected and compared palaeoenvironmental information about the different interglacial periods. This comparison let him to conclude that glacial inception is largely overdue [4, 5]. According to him, the Holocene was not supposed to be this long, but the natural glacial inception process was stopped by an anthropogenic perturbation that began as early as 8,000 years ago (rice plantations and land management by antique civilisations). On the other side, Professor Andre Berger and colleagues developed a mathematical model of the climate system, rated today as a `model of intermediate complexity’ [6, 7] to solve the dynamics of the atmosphere and ice sheets on a spatial grid of 19 x 5 elements, with a reasonably extensive treatment of the shortwave and longwave radiative transfers in the atmosphere. Simulations with this model led Berger and Loutre to conclude that glacial inception is not due for another 50,000 years, as long as the CO2 atmospheric concentration stays above 220 ppmv [8]. Who is right?”

    This warrants repeating: “The debate is about when to expect the next glacial inception, setting aside human activities, which may well have perturbed natural cycles.”

    You see, if the IPCC et al. are right about CO2/AGW, then Ruddiman is probably right: if it were not for AGW we would already be in a now overdue (or due now) glacial. And that makes what to do about AGW a very interesting question indeed!

    Rohling et al (2010) chime in with this:

    Finally, the alignment shown in Fig. 4 (which is similar to that of Ruddiman, 2005, 2007) exemplifies a completely different, more controversial (Spanhi et al., 2005; Siegenthaler et al., 2005), possibility. It has been argued that variability in the planetary energy balance during Pleistocene glacial cycles was dominated by greenhouse gas and albedo related feedback mechanisms, and that the role of insolation was limited to only triggering the feedback responses (Hansen et al., 2008). Hence, the apparently anomalous climate trends of the most recent 2.0-2.5 millennia should also be investigated in terms of changes in these feedback responses due to processes other than insolation, including controversial suggestions concerning man’s long-term impacts from deforestation and CH4 and CO2 emissions (Ruddiman, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007; Hansen et al., 2008). There is support from modelling studies that the relatively minor early anthropogenic influences may have been sufficient to delay glacial inception (Vavrus et al., 2008; Kutzbach et al., 2009).

    It’s not much of a mental leap to realize that stripping a “climate security blanket” capable of preventing or mitigating glacial inception from the half-precession old Holocene interglacial might be inviting the tipping point known as glacial inception. Even if the IPCC et al. are right and Ruddiman is wrong, the question is the same. Remove AGW GHGs etc. from the late Holocene atmosphere and take your chances with glacial inception.

    What you should be able to realize here is that the appropriate response to AGW in the middle of an interglacial might be the exact opposite of what to do at an end interglacial.


  4. Post 5 of 10:

    Those happy to take their chances with what may be an already overdue glacial and risk glacial inception by reducing AGW/GHGs to whatever late Holocene concentration you prefer, plunk down here.

    What sense does it make to even consider removing trace gases with purportedly the power to perhaps delay or ameliorate glacial inception? Those that just realized being right about CO2/AGW means we may need to do a U-turn on policy plunk down here. We may already have a glacial inception insurance policy aka CO2/AGW.

    You are allowed to change your mind at any time.

    In either the “Do Something” or “Do Nothing” cases, you may wish to consider the following:

    “Investigating the processes that led to the end of the last interglacial period is relevant for understanding how our ongoing interglacial will end, which has been a matter of much debate…..”

    “The onset of the LEAP occurred within less than two decades, demonstrating the existence of a sharp threshold, which must be near 416 Wm2, which is the 65oN July insolation for 118 kyr BP (ref. 9). This value is only slightly below today’s value of 428 Wm2. Insolation will remain at this level slightly above the inception for the next 4,000 years before it then increases again.”

    Sirocko et al (A late Eemian aridity pulse in central Europe during the last glacial inception, nature, vol. 436, 11 August 2005, doi:10.1038/nature 03905, pp 833-836)

    In case this was not clear, all we may need do is nothing about CO2/AGW for the next ~4,000 years to perhaps cheat glacial inception.

    In summing up this section, the entire AGW debate might actually be just that simple. GHGs either can or cannot mitigate glacial inception. It is no more complicated or simple than that. Period.

    a) If GHGs can get us over the next ~4,000 years of glacial inception risk, then why are we having this discussion at all?

    b) If GHGs can’t vault us across the next ~4,000 years of glacial inception risk, then why are we having this discussion at all?

    Not falsified, obviated.

    As you might expect, it actually does get worse than you think.


    In this section we will look at two essentially insurmountable obstacles to AGW, signal to noise ratio (SNR) and the climatic “madhouse” known as Glacial Inception (GI). Either one obliterates any concern whatsoever related to AGW. The reference standard chosen to represent the absolute worst case of AGW is the IPCC’s Assessment Report 4 (2007)

    SIDETRIP 02:


  5. Post 6 of 10:

    Your attention is drawn to Figure 10.33 from page 821 of Chapter 10 of AR4. SRES marker series A1F1 is the IPCC’s worst case “business as usual” scenario in which we do nothing about CO2/AGW in terms of the absolute measure of climate change, relative sea level (RSL). The median value of A1F1 comes in at +0.425 meters by 2099, or about +1.4 feet above present day mean sea level ( or amsl). If we use the upper error bar for A1F1 as the ultimate absolute worst case, we get about +0.6 meters (about 2 feet) amsl by 2099.

    So the upper error bar of the worst case “business as usual” scenario from the gold standard of climate science, the IPCC, is +0.6 meter relative sea level rise by 2099. This is the ultimate AGW “signal”, so do take note here.

    Is that a lot?

    Actually, the more intelligent question might be:

    Can we even detect our worst case CO2/AGW “signal” at an end interglacial/glacial inception?

    Which brings us to yet another debate taking place in the paleoclimate community you have probably heard nada about: What is glacial inception like?

    You see, the problem here, of course, is “noise”. Neuman and Hearty (1996) spell it out for us:

    “The lesson from the last interglacial “greenhouse” in the Bahamas is that the closing of that interval brought sea-level changes that were rapid and extreme. This has prompted the remark that between the greenhouse and the icehouse lies a climatic “madhouse”.

    Boettger, et al (Quaternary International 207 [2009] 137–144) abstract it for us:

    “In terrestrial records from Central and Eastern Europe the end of the Last Interglacial seems to be characterized by evident climatic and environmental instabilities recorded by geochemical and vegetation indicators. The transition (MIS 5e/5d) from the Last Interglacial (Eemian, Mikulino) to the Early Last Glacial (Early Weichselian, Early Valdai) is marked by at least two warming events as observed in geochemical data on the lake sediment profiles of Central (Gro¨bern, Neumark–Nord, Klinge) and of Eastern Europe (Ples). Results of palynological studies of all these sequences indicate simultaneously a strong increase of environmental oscillations during the very end of the Last Interglacial and the beginning of the Last Glaciation. This paper discusses possible correlations of these events between regions in Central and Eastern Europe. The pronounced climate and environment instability during the interglacial/glacial transition could be consistent with the assumption that it is about a natural phenomenon, characteristic for transitional stages. Taking into consideration that currently observed ‘‘human-induced’’ global warming coincides with the natural trend to cooling, the study of such transitional stages is important for understanding the underlying processes of the climate changes.” [emphasis mine] Hearty and Neumann (Quaternary Science Reviews 20 [2001] 1881–1895) abstracting their work in the Bahamas state:

    “The geology of the Last Interglaciation (sensu stricto, marine isotope substage (MIS) 5e) in the Bahamas records the nature of sea level and climate change. After a period of quasi-stability for most of the interglaciation, during which reefs grew to +2.5 m, sea level rose rapidly at the end of the period, incising notches in older limestone. After brief stillstands at +6 and perhaps +8.5 m, sea level fell with apparent speed to the MIS 5d lowstand and much cooler climatic


  6. Post 7 of 10:

    conditions. It was during this regression from the MIS 5e highstand that the North Atlantic suffered an oceanographic ‘‘reorganization’’ about 11873 ka ago. During this same interval, massive dune-building greatly enlarged the Bahama Islands. Giant waves reshaped exposed lowlands into chevron-shaped beach ridges, ran up on older coastal ridges, and also broke off and threw megaboulders onto and over 20 m-high cliffs. The oolitic rocks recording these features yield concordant whole-rock amino acid ratios across the archipelago. Whether or not the Last Interglaciation serves as an appropriate analog for our ‘‘greenhouse’’ world, it nonetheless reveals the intricate details of climatic transitions between warm interglaciations and near glacial conditions.” [emphasis mine]

    From a dozen such Eemian studies from around the globe, Hearty et al (2007) provide on Figure 2 a worldwide range of sea level highstands, predominantly identified at the End Eemian, ranging from +6.0 meters to +45.0 meters amsl. Lysa et al (2001) extend the possible end-Eemian climate noise envelope to +52.0 meters amsl:

    “The Arkhangelsk area lies in the region that was reached by the northeastern flank of the Scandinavian ice sheet during the last glaciation. Investigations of Late Pleistocene sediments show interglacial terrestrial and marine conditions with sea level up to 52 m above the present level.”

    And then there’s Bausch and Erlenkeuser’s (2008) “”critical” climatic evaluation of last interglacial (MIS 5e)”:

    “As has been stated previously on the basis of some of the records from core M23055 (Bauch et al 1996), the main 5e-ss [5e sensu stricto – the authors] of the last warm period in the Nordic seas occurred within the upper part of the MIS 5e interval, and the warmest phase occurred towards its very end (see also Haake & Pflaumann 1989).”

    We are now up to a possible 2 strong positive thermal excursions right at the end of the last interglacial, the Eemian, as it was undergoing glacial inception. Upon closer inspection, that second, stronger highstand itself may have had 11 negative thermal excursions with potentially 8 positive thermal excursions right at the end Eemian:

    “This implies a total sea-level change of at least 6-7 m occurred during the fall and subsequent rise between Units 2 and 3. Besides, this remarkable fall of sea level promoted a renewed input of pebbles fed to the coast, probably trough fluvial incision and erosion of older beach deposits. Our conclusion is that sea level rose and fell repeatedly during the second highstand of MIS 5e, reaching similar elevations a.s.l., and depositing Units 2 and 3 and their various subunits.”

    Their conclusions:

    “Evidence of rapid changes of sea level during the second MIS 5e highstand, comparable to the “sustained MIS 5e highstand” with a duration of 10 +/- 2 ka, has been recognized in a prograding barrierspit system located at La Marina-El Pinet (Alicante). Detailed sedimentological analysis allowed differentiating three orders of sealevel fluctuations.

    “The largest-scaled fluctuation is recorded as the conspicuous erosion surface (IV) and the associated increase in grain size that divides deposits of the second highstand in two morphosedimentary units: Unit 2 and Unit 3. It involved a minimum total sea level variation of 6-7 m.


  7. Post 8 of 10:

    “These units include eight prograding subunits separated by less prominent erosion surfaces. Petrographic analysis of marine sediments below and above the surfaces revealed that subaerial exposure took place after deposition of each subunit. In our interpretation, the erosion surfaces are the result of repetitive relatively slow falls of sea level followed by rapid sea-level rise. The minimum amplitude deduced for fluctuations is 2 m, which represents a total change (fall and subsequent rise) in sea-water of 4 m. After each fall and erosion the sea level rose to similar topographic elevations. We propose a millennial or submillennial periodicity (∼1 ka) for these fluctuations, and disregard storm surges as a likely generating mechanism. The large magnitude of the repeated sea-level fluctuations suggests a contribution by rapid ice sheets melting and build-up.

    “The smaller-scaled (tens of centimeters) order of oscillations of sea level has been recognized inside the subunits from shifts of the foreshore and uppermost shoreface facies, and a decadal periodicity is suggested.”

    One need take care to process all of that data up to this point. Out of two strong positive pulses frequently reported for the end Eemian glacial inception phase, the second and stronger one actually had “8 prograding subunits”. Interpretation: during the third, final and highest sea level highstand at the end Eemian there were 8 “repetitive relatively slow falls of sea level followed by rapid sea-level rise” of about 4 meters.

    One can only hope that this is sinking in. Somehow, we are going to have to be able to detect an AGW “signal” of +0.6 meters amsl from as many as maybe 8 rapid oscillations hovering between 1 to almost 2 orders of magnitude greater sea level rise estimates (+6.0 to +52 meters amsl) for the end-Eemian. Both large pulses, and the eight sub-pulses within the second large pulse, wildly exceeded anything so far prognosticated by AGW.

    The Eemian, being the next youngest interglacial in the record, is also the best preserved and therefore of the best resolution. Even so, if we take a look at the ends of the other two post-MPT interglacials which also occurred at an eccentricity minima, the climatic “madhouse” picture is just about as grim.

    Consider this contribution from Desprat et al (2005) as regards the end-Holsteinian (MIS-11 to -12 glacial inception):

    “The Marine Isotope Stage 11 interglacial, centered at ~400 ka, appears to be the best candidate for understanding climatic changes in the context of low insolation forcing such as that of our present interglacial. Direct correlation between terrestrial (pollen) and marine climatic indicators and ice volume proxy from deep-sea core MD01-2447 (off northwestern Iberia) shows for the first time the phase relationship between southwestern European vegetation, sea surface temperatures in the northeastern Atlantic midlatitudes and ice volume during MIS 11. A warmest 32,000 years-long period and three following warm/cold cycles occurred synchronously on land and ocean. The end of the warmest period sees the glacial inception…..”

    and this from Pol et al (2010):

    “During the glacial inception from MIS 19 to MIS 18, the low resolution EPICA Dome C water stable isotope record (Jouzel et al., 2007) has revealed millennial variability principally marked by the occurrence of three consecutive warm events (hereafter called Antarctic Isotope Maxima — AIM, following EPICA-community-members, 2006, and noted A, B, C on Fig. 2).”

    SIDETRIP 03: Glacial Inception:


  8. Post 9 of 10:

    For some this might seem to be a lot of science, but it is also necessary for the record and section argument of evisceration and obviation of the entire climate discussion. Any AGW component of climate change, at such a time as a half precession cycle old interglacial, is most-likely irrelevant. By itself the SNR problem is staggering. The upper error-bar of the worst case IPCC AR4 scenario yields the maximum AGW “signal” of +0.6 meters amsl by 2099. This is the “signal” we are charged to detect from the climatic “madhouse” known as glacial inception. Which has, and could again, consist of from at least 2 (often 3) major positive thermal excursions with perhaps as many as 8 lesser cycles of sea level rise and fall within just the second, last, and strongest major excursion attending the last glacial inception.

    How is it we are to even notice the IPCC-AR4 upper error-bar SRES marker A1F1 AGW scenario, coming in at +0.6 meters amsl, which is ten times (an order of magnitude) less than the lowest estimate of +6.0 meters amsl, for the final Eemian highstand? Want to go apples to apples, +0.6 vs. +52.0 meters amsl rise, AGW clocks-in at just 1.15%, a “signal” almost 2 orders of magnitude lower than the “noise”! Signal Processing experts feel free to chime in here. I don’t know how to detect a future AGW “signal”, the exact characteristics of which we don’t know yet because it hasn’t happened yet, from normal natural end interglacial/glacial inception background climate “noise” levels 1 to nearly 2 orders of magnitude higher, and of which there might be 2 to 8 such.

    This simply cannot be taken seriously.

    Consider that the +0.425 to 0.6 AGW median to worst case scenario is 4 to 6 “tens of centimeters:

    “The smaller-scaled (tens of centimeters) order of oscillations of sea level has been recognized inside the subunits from shifts of the foreshore and uppermost shoreface facies, and a decadal periodicity is suggested.”

    What? Decadal periodicity is suggested for “The smaller-scaled (tens of centimeters) order of oscillations”? Might that include 4 to 6 “tens of centimeters”? And might that not obviate the worst case AGW scenario of 6 “tens of centimeters”? You might want to have a long think about that.


    “I will award $30,000 of my own money to anyone that can prove, via the scientific method, that man-made global climate change is not occurring”

    This, obviously, I have not done, in any way, shape, or form. Instead, I eviscerated, obviated and neutered the entire climate change discussion. Meaning, strictly using the “scientific method”, I just rendered any question regarding “man-made global climate change” utterly moot and trivial:

    1) GHGs either can or cannot mitigate glacial inception. They either have or have not already done so. It is no more complicated or simple than that. Period. Meaning, of course, that removing CO2/GHGs to some policy level might tip us into the next glacial. We only need to make it another ~4,000 years or so until insolation begins to rise again. The only thing in the air that makes that possible is if you and the IPCC are right about AGW/CO2/GHGs. If wrong, then none of that matters. In case you hadn’t noticed yet, being right about AGW/CO2/GHGs actually means we might “skip a precessional beat” like MIS-11 did, and end up with another extended interglacial, if we do nothing about it/them.


  9. Post 10 of 10:

    2) Is +0.6 meters amsl all you got? I’ll see your +0.6 meters amsl rise by 2099 and raise you tenfold to the lowest estimate of the sea level highstand, +6.0 meters amsl. Notice I did not call…. You consult your AGW hand (the “Gorical”) and you then “see” my raise of +6.0 meters amsl and raise pot to say 21.3 meters amsl, the final MIS-11 highstand resulting from the 3rd and final positive thermal excursion of that interglacial (which, of course, was not instigated by AGW) and call. I lay down my cards. I’ve got a +45.0 and a +52.0 meter highstand flush. AGW cannot beat such a hand.
    3) And you would be the wiser not to try. Because none of this climate change discussion we are having even matters regardless if we are right or wrong about CO2/GHGs/AGW. We are either overdue for glacial inception or we are due now. Whenever the end Holocene finally does arrive, if it is even in our power to let it, we are probably assured of the climatic “madhouse” that is glacial inception. Replete with abrupt, orders of magnitude stronger positive thermal excursions.

    You see, by merely adopting the meme that AGW/CO2/GHG emissions can trap and store heat, for maybe thousands of years if we stop emitting right now, by that same token we might have already obviated glacial inception. And maybe can continue for the next ~4,000 years or so.

    Or might your preference actually be glacial inception?

    Are you now aware how easily the AGW argument can be turned on its head? You see, the far more menacing problem is not if one “can prove, via the scientific method, that man-made global climate change is not occurring”, but that “The debate is about when to expect the next glacial inception, setting aside human activities, which may well have perturbed natural cycles.” A decades old debate you have probably heard nothing about, until now.

    The $30,000 question regards proving that man-made global climate change is not occurring. Disregarding that one cannot prove a negative, we can adopt the premise that not only can man-made climate change occur, it may already have prevented glacial inception and could possibly do so well into the future, hopefully the next ~4,000 years or so.

    The AGW meme is therefore reversed, using nothing but the scientific method itself. AGW is real? Fine. OK. Now take the AGW/CO2/GHG “pollution” out of the late Holocene atmosphere so Mother Nature can maybe get on with her, perhaps overdue, if not due now, next glacial inception. And be quick about it!

    “This is why the past million years has been essentially a continuing ice-age, broken occasionally by short-lived interglacials. It is also why those who have engaged in lurid talk over an enhanced greenhouse effect raising the Earth’s temperature by a degree or two should be seen as both demented and dangerous. The problem for the present swollen human species is of a drift back into an ice-age, not away from an ice-age.”

    Stated famous astronomer Fred Hoyle on CCNet back in 1999 (sorry, the link no longer works).

    In the final analysis, only being right about AGW/CO2/GHGs makes any difference whatsoever. Consider Sole, Turiel and Llebot, writing in Physics Letters A 366 (2007), pp. 184–189:

    “There are different works that relate the CO2 air concentration with temperature changes, supposing that CO2 may [12] or may not drive this temperature increase [20]. In this work ice-core CO2 time evolution in the period going from 20 to 60 kyr BP [15] has been qualitatively compared to our temperature cycles, according to the class they belong to. It can be observed in Fig. 6 that class A cycles are completely unrelated to changes in CO2 concentration. We have


  10. Post 11 of 10:

    Yeah, that’s right, 11 (so far) of 10. See what happens when one opts for a weak blog engine as this one?

    observed some correlation between B and C cycles and CO2 concentration, but of the opposite sign to the one expected: maxima in atmospheric CO2 concentration tend to correspond to the middle part or the end the cooling period. The role of CO2 in the oscillation phenomena seems to be more related to extend the duration of the cooling phase than to trigger warming. This could explain why cycles not coincident in time with maxima of CO2 (A cycles) rapidly decay back to the cold state.”

    In juxtaposition to your challenge to “anyone that can prove, via the scientific method, that man-made global climate change is not occurring”, I have proven that if you are right about AGW/CO2/GHGs, you simply could not be more wrong concerning what to do about it/them at the now 11,717 year old Holocene.

    Again, and for the prize, GHGs either can or cannot mitigate glacial inception. Period.

    a) If GHGs can get us over the next ~4,000 years of glacial inception risk, then why are we having this discussion at all?

    b) If GHGs can’t vault us across the next ~4,000 years of glacial inception risk, then why are we having this discussion at all?

    And again, and for the prize again, I bet you didn’t see that one coming…….

    The question is what is such an education worth? $30k?

    I can only hope so…….


    I still find it amazing how many deniers are trying to weasel out of the challenge with an attempt to redefine it. It is my challenge and I get to define it. Deniers keep complaining about how it is impossible to prove a negative (it isn’t), but they keep telling people they can do just that. This challenge is for all of those deniers that keep saying man made global warming is not real and they can prove it. So, here’s your chance to do just that. If it is, in your words, impossible to prove a negative, then why do deniers keep telling the public they can do just that? If you can’t prove it, stop telling people you can. That is the whole purpose of the challenge.

    The issue of what to do about global warming is another issue. Once all the deniers agree that man made global warming is real and they stop trying to deceive the public, then we can move on to the next discussion.

    Your entire submission consisted of saying a new ice age is imminent (over even overdue) and we need to be more concerned with that than with global warming. I looked over your submission and I have all sorts of issues and think it is flawed, but that isn’t what this challenge is about. I will point out the fatal flaw of your submission is your dependence on the 23,000 year number. Ice ages don’t come and go like trains. There is not schedule. Besides that, there are all sorts of very serious flaws in your argument. You really need to go back and do your homework.

    Now, in regards to proving man made global warming is not real, we have a decision in your own words:

    This, obviously, I have not done, in any way, shape, or form.

    We have found something we agree on.


And, It Keeps Getting Hotter – June Was Hottest Ever

NOAA announced yesterday June 2014 was the hottest June since we started keeping modern records in 1880 with a global average temperature that was .72 degrees C (1.3 degrees F) higher than the 20th century global average. It was the 38th consecutive June and the 352nd month in a row that was higher than the 20th century global average temperature.

But, let’s not forget that May was the hottest May ever recorded.

And, April tied 2010 as the hottest April ever recorded.

And, March was the fourth hottest March ever recorded.

We got a break in February. It was only the 21st hottest February ever recorded. Although, that still qualified as being the 29th February in a row with temperatures hotter than the 20th century global average. 

But, that break followed the hottest January since 2007 and the fourth hottest January on record – the 38th January in a row hotter than the 20th century global average.

So, let’s see what the score is so far for 2014: one 21st hottest month, two 4th hottest months, and three hottest months ever.

What was that the deniers keep saying about how the temperature rise has stopped?

$30,000 Challenge Submission – Change in Temperature Over Change in Time

Greetings, Professor Keating,
If you look at the following image on wikipedia, you’ll see the historical record of temperate and atmospheric co2 for the last four hundred thousand years:…
If you inspect it, and compare the time evolution, you’ll see that the co2 has been lagging temperature over time. That is, temperature goes up first and then co2 goes up. Temperature goes down and then co2 goes down.
You can get the data yourself from here:…
I’ve attached an image which plots the two of them on the same graph to make it easier to see. Time goes from right to left in my plot.
I’ve also taken the trouble to generate two other plots, which you can reproduce using the data available from NOAA that I linked to above.
The plots show dtemperature/dt (rate of change of temperature with time) as a function of co2 concentration minus temperature, and dCO2/dt as a function of temperature minus co2. (These variables have been brought to zero mean and unit standard deviation so they have the same units and one can be subtracted from the other.)
The two variables, temperature and co2, track each other so well that we can do linear perturbation theory. I.e. the dynamics keeps temperature and co2 close to each other, so it shrinks the value of:
abs(T – co2)
where T is temperature and co2 is atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.
So, we write:
dT/dt = f(co2 – T) + noise
dco2/dt = g(T – co2) + noise
where f and g are functions. Now we suppose that the response is linear so:
dT/dt = k(co2 – T) + noise
dco2/dt = m(T – co2) + noise
where k and m are constants.
Now, if k is positive, then it means that temperature increases when there is excess carbon dioxide (i.e. more than usual for this temperature).
If k is not positive, then it means that, ignoring the effect of noise, temperature does not increase in response to excess atmospheric carbon dioxide.
If m is not positive, then it means that carbon dioxide does not increase when the temperature is above what it usually is at this carbon dioxide concentration.
If m is positive, it means that carbon dioxide increases when the temperature is higher than usual for this carbon dioxide concentration and decreases when the temperature is lower than usual for this carbon dioxide concentration.
Behold the graphs, or better yet, download the data from NOAA yourself and analyse it.
The result: m is positive. k isn’t.
Finally, I invite you to apply the measure of Granger causality to the two time series:…
I did this using the Granger causality tests included in the free statsmodels module for python. The result: The temperature forecasts the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration better than the co2 concentration forecasts the temperature by a factor of 10 to the power of 40.
I have yet to encounter any evidence of comparable definiteness suggesting an influence of atmospheric carbon dioxide on global temperature, as have you.


Your math is invalid because you are subtracting nonequal units. You cannot subtract CO2 from temperature, and vice verse because they do not have the same units. For example, (400 ppm – 30 degrees C) does not make sense.

However, I understand what you are trying to do. You are trying to show the rate of temperature change as a function of rate of CO2 change. The proper math for this would be to have two functions like this:

f(dT/dt)/g(dCO2/dt), where dT/dt is the amount of temperature change over time and dCO2/dt is the amount of change in the CO2 level over time.

If you do this correctly, what you will have managed to do is to demonstrate what climate scientists have been saying for quite some time, there has been a natural trigger in the past. What we have learned (and I have covered in previous submissions) is in the past some natural trigger would occur that caused the temperature to start rising. This trigger has most often been solar activity and Milankovitch cycles. Once the temperature begins to rise in response to this naturally occurring trigger the CO2 levels begin to increase. This not only continues the temperature increase due to increased efficiency of the greenhouse effect, but also leads to additional water vapor in the atmosphere, another potent greenhouse gas. Once the natural trigger goes away, the temperature will begin to drop which will cause the atmospheric water vapor to condense out of the air and remove the CO2.

Now, look at what is going on today. Those natural triggers are not present. In fact, the natural cycle we are in would result in cooling temperatures if we were not present. We do not have a naturally occurring something increasing the temperature which would lead to CO2 being released into the atmosphere. But, we still have a sustained increase in the atmospheric CO2 levels. That increase is due to man made emissions. But, what is very interesting is the fact that the level of CO2 increase is leading the temperature increase. In the natural cycles, it was always lagging the temperature increase.

What this means is that we have replaced the natural triggers that led to increased CO2 levels with our own man made emissions. We are now pumping the atmosphere full of CO2 and that is having the same effect as it did in the past when some natural event caused the level to rise. 

You have not proven man made global warming is not real.